A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
